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Planning Matters

What Comes NEXT...

By: Tim Hernandez

ssuming an effective COVID-19 vaccine is therefore drive more than ever? Certainly people are
eventually found or we reach herd immunity, walking and bicycling much more around the
A experts in the planning, design and real estate neighborhood, not necessarily to and from work, but for
professions are speculating on what the world will look like recreational purposes. The pandemic has shined the light
then. Is the “new normal” everyone is talking about here on the need for more complete bikepath and sidewalk
for good, or will people revert to past behaviors and will systems which make walking and cycling safer by
real estate asset classes—housing, retail, office, etc.— increasing separation from motor vehicles.
experience a return historic supply/demand dynamics?
And what might that mean for our neighborhood? And it’s no surprise that online retail, which was growing even
Following is a quick look. before the pandemic, has experienced astronomical gains as
According to a Gallup Panel survey conducted in April now more than ever people have discovered that buying
(news.gallup.com/poll/306695/workers-discovering- online is not only more convenient but arguably safer
affinity-remote-work.aspx) , the percentage of employed (www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2020/04/28/how-
Americans that work at home at least part of the time covid-19-is-transforming-e-commerce/#12e0de3f3544). So it
doubled from about 31% in March to about 62% in April. seems likely that ordinary brick and mortar retail, which was
Of those persons that have been working remotely, about a struggling sector before the pandemic, will continue to
60% want to continue to do so and about 40% want to go struggle. The Targets, Walmarts, Home Depots, Lowes and
back to their traditional office environment. So it turns out a grocery chains of the world are expected to continue to do
lot of people like working from home. While some well, as are businesses like hair salons that require in-person
employers will mandate workers return, others—particularly visits. Banks will be around, although they are getting much
those located in areas where office space is expensive, smaller. Bike stores are booming. But it’s expected to be
housing is expensive and commuting is miserable—will survival of the fittest for department stores and many smaller
follow the lead of Silicon Valley employers retailers, who are now experiencing severe and
(www.fastcompany.com/90511454/once-we-can-work- unprecedented financial difficulties, especially in marginal
from-anywhere-does-the-world-need-silicon-valley) and let locations. This could mean vacancies in strip malls, which
those who can work from home at least part of the time are already being repurposed into apartments and
continue to do so. Employers will be able to reduce the townhomes across the country. It’s only a matter of time before
amount of office space they lease, employees will spend the Coral Ridge Mall gets redeveloped. Target and Publix can
less time commuting and can live where they want, which be expected to be part of any redevelopment. But the vast
logically might be in a larger home or apartment with more swaths of surface parking will eventually be replaced with
amenities nearby but may or may not be close to the office. parking structures and apartments. Even AMC’s future is in
It may not even be in the same city or state. Most question, between COVID-19 and on-demand movies via
commercial real estate experts are predicting a slackening numerous platforms.
of office demand—except for medical offices--as we Of course, more online retail means more demand for
emerge from the pandemic and leases start expiring. warehouse and distribution space. Industrial is expected to
Of course for the +/- 64% of the workforce who never be strong, but we don’t have much, if any, of that in our
worked remotely or will be going back to their workplace, neighborhood.
the world will look the same—or will it? Might there be less The restaurant sector is expected to rebound. It’s a low
rush hour traffic, less congestion, less pollution? Or will barriers to entry industry. But many restaurants that have
people have trepidations about taking public transit and closed will never reopen. The restaurants doing the best

4 CORAL RIDGE COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES HOA